A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
